How much does luck play into achieving success, and how can we tip the scales in our favor? Discussing strategies on experimentation, perseverance, quitting, and tackling perfectionism.

Transcript

Hello! I’m Leo Isikdogan, and welcome to Cognitive Creations. Today we're going to talk about how much luck contributes to success and what we can do about it. We'll discuss how to change the odds in our favor. We will talk about the art of trying a lot of things, including when to try new things, when to persevere, and when to quit. We'll discuss whether perfectionism is a good thing and how to decide if something is finished, especially if it’s something by nature never complete or perfect. Alright, let’s get started.

Luck vs. Hard Work

When something happens around us, is it because of what we do, or is it just chance. Especially if it’s something positive. How much of it is hard work and how much of it is just a roll of the dice? Typically, the more competitive a field is, the bigger role luck plays. Think about it. If hundreds or even thousands of people compete for a single spot, then even a slight role of luck in selection can be a decisive factor. Among a thousand candidates, ten may be equally skilled, yet only one will be chosen.

So, having skill is essential; it's like the entry ticket. It’s a prerequisite for success but does not guarantee it. Among those who are skilled, luck often plays a deciding role.

Interestingly though, if you believe that your actions play a big part in your success, even if it’s not entirely true, you might actually boost your chances of succeeding. People who have an internal locus of control often achieve more. They believe that it’s their actions that primarily shape their life events. They tend to be proactive in shaping their destiny and are more mentally resilient.

However, this doesn’t mean that we have to deny the role of luck and randomness in success. Recognizing it doesn't undermine the significance of hard work. It simply adds a sense of appreciation. Believing in our agency while acknowledging the influence of chance creates a balanced perspective. It encourages us to strive and work hard, yet be grateful for the fortunate opportunities that come our way.

Proactivity, Optimism and Persistence

Personally, I try to be proactive to shape a positive future for myself, while having an overall optimistic outlook. I expect good things to happen. I don't expect every single attempt to be a success, but I see many paths to achieving my goals. If one effort fails, another can succeed. Plus, there's often value in the attempt itself, even if it doesn't work out.

You learn from your previous attempts and your past becomes a series of learning experiences.

Here’s an analogy. Think you are rolling dice. There is so much randomness and you cannot control the outcome. Even if you can't control the outcome of dice rolls, you can refine your technique and keep rolling them. You can't predict the numbers, but you can still improve your odds of winning the game. You can choose your games, become a better player, and embrace each game as a blend of chance and the wisdom gained from previous attempts.

As someone who loves exploring different fields, I often find myself rolling the dice in areas beyond my immediate expertise.

Specialization vs. Generalization

In today's world, focusing on only one thing – and doing it very well – is valued far more than having a broad skill set, and doing a lot of things. Someone who might have been celebrated as a polymath in the Renaissance era, could today be labeled as a 'jack of all trades,’ with a somewhat negative connotation. Yet, even today, many significant innovations emerge from connecting the dots between different fields.

It’s a kind of information arbitrage in a sense, if you think about it. If I'm an expert in one area, others in that field likely know the same things. It’s a very efficient market, if someone discovers something, others do so around the same time, even without knowing about each other's work. But what are the odds some other expert also has my unique combination of expertise across different fields? In this sense, the market for specialists is far more efficient than for generalists. It’s easier to find opportunities to innovate at the intersection of different fields.

We absolutely need specialists. That’s for sure. But we also need those who bridge gaps between disciplines. Those who can connect seemingly unrelated dots.

I think the best balance here at an individual level is to excel at a few things while exploring others. In the end, it all comes down to the exploration-exploitation trade-off. We constantly face a choice between exploring new opportunities and exploiting our existing knowledge. This trade-off applies at any moment and throughout our lives, guiding our decisions on how much to venture into the unknown or leverage what we already know.

Negative emotions like fear and sadness often lead us to withdraw and stick with what we know is safe and familiar. Positive emotions, such as joy and interest, signal that things are going well, so we can afford venturing into the unknown. They broaden our attention, helping us build resources that improve our chances of success in the long run. This concept is a key element of the Broaden and Build Theory.

Non-Perfectionism in Exploration

My approach to exploration of what’s outside my focus is a non-perfectionist one, so that I can quickly identify what works, and focus on that more.

The key isn't just having good ideas, but having a process to try many ideas. Many people have plenty of ideas, but they often don't turn into reality. Even when they do, they become no longer relevant by the time they do, because of perfectionism.

The problem is, many types of projects are almost never perfect.

Take a machine learning model, for instance. It can always have higher accuracy. Even if it’s 100% accurate on a certain test set, there may be cases where it's not 100% accurate. There are always corner cases to find. The same goes for creative products. They can always be improved – better design, better sound, and the list goes on.

These projects rarely have a clear endpoint – a moment when they're definitively finished.

Deciding When Something Is Finished

Here’s a basic guideline: if something better exists as-is than not at all, then it’s ready to go. Would releasing it now, in its current form, be better than not releasing it at all? The answer may not always be yes. If it’s replacing an existing solution, it should be better than that. If it’s a new solution, it should be good enough to make a good first impression. If the answer is yes, if it indeed better exists than not, then I would focus on launching and sharing rather than perfecting every last detail, squeezing the last percent of improvement.

Opportunity Cost and Time to Quit

Deciding when something is finished is important especially in the 'exploration' phase. Because the time is limited and there are a lot of other things we can do.

The key consideration here is opportunity cost. At any time, we're focused on one task, which means we're not doing all the other things we could be doing.

The same applies to deciding when to quit something, when to give up, what to give up, and what not to give up.

We often hear messages in books, speeches, songs, and movies telling us to never give up. But is this really always the best advice?

I think there are two main reasons why this kind of advice is so popular.

One is survivorship bias. We hear a lot about people who persevered and succeeded but not as much from those who persisted without achieving success.

The other reason is, in defense of this advice, that quitting is almost always easier. When people quit, it's not because they know of another path that is better, but because quitting is the easier thing to do in the short term.

There are times when quitting is the smart move, however, it should be for the right reasons. When making this decision, you might want to ask yourself 'Why am I doing this in the first place?', 'Is there another path that could lead to a better outcome?', and '‘'Is this something I should let go to achieve a higher goal?'

Navigating Beyond Consensus

For me, the higher a goal is, the less specific it becomes. And the less specific it is, the more ways there are to achieve it. Some of those ways may not be so obvious. So, while setting a goal gives me an overall direction, it doesn't stop me from exploring other paths. Paths that not everyone in the field might see as promising.

It's hard to get everyone in a field to agree on an idea and the ideas that everyone agrees on tend to be average. It's hard to shift the average. Averages tend to get stuck in local minima. They are better than adjacent solutions but not the very best solution.

They tend to be the common denominator of good ideas, but this is not always the way forward. It’s a safe bet, but safe bets don't usually lead to breakthroughs. That’s why revolutions in a field sometimes come from complete outsiders, rather than a panel of experts in that field.

Exploration Inspired by Genetic Algorithms

So, what to do? Here’s what I do. I try a lot of things, see what works out, drop the ones that don’t work, and focus on the ones that do work. Then, I sample more things in the vicinity of the ones that work, and mix and match them as we go on.

This strategy is somewhat similar to genetic algorithms.

Not everything produced will succeed, but increasing output in the right direction increases chances of success.

Trying a lot of things doesn’t mean doing so randomly and aimlessly.

I think a good point to start exploring is focusing on what you’re already good at. When picking projects, hobbies or jobs, it's a good idea to start with your strong points. Then you can work on the stuff you're not so good at when necessary.

That said, several things I've tried in the past weren't closely aligned with my skills. Music is one of them. I appreciate music, but I realized I was not good at making it. I gave up on music, and that's okay. I have allocated my time and energy to other areas that seem to better align with my strengths. I do give up on individual things that don’t work, but I don’t give up on the process of trying different things.

You Never Know What You’ll Be Famous For

Every rule of thumb has its exceptions. There are still many things I haven’t given up on despite not being my top strengths.

I may never become the best in any of those. I already know that. I’m pursuing them because I find them intrinsically rewarding. And who knows, maybe I will become the best in one of those eventually, even if that’s not the goal.

One of my favorite creators, Jack Conte, once said: 'You can't choose what you're famous for.' I have a slightly different version of it: You never know what you’ll be famous for. You never know what you create today will lead to tomorrow. Life is full of surprises, as long as you keep doing interesting things that matter.

Alright, that was pretty much it. I hope you found it helpful and interesting. Thanks for listening and I’ll see you next time.